Introduction
Saudi Arabia’s potential accession to the BRICS bloc—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has garnered significant global attention. Despite receiving an invitation to join, the Kingdom has adopted a measured approach, reflecting its strategic considerations on the international stage. This hesitation is not just a matter of diplomatic caution but also a complex evaluation of economic, political, and regional factors that could reshape its foreign policy and alliances.
BRICS Expansion and Saudi Arabia’s Invitation
In August 2023, during the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, the group extended invitations to six nations, including Saudi Arabia, to become full members starting January 1, 2024. The expansion was seen as a move to strengthen the bloc’s influence in global affairs, challenging the traditional dominance of Western-led institutions such as the G7 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the inclusion of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, marking a significant expansion of the bloc. This decision was aimed at enhancing cooperation in trade, investment, and financial systems among emerging economies. With these additions, BRICS would represent over 40% of the world’s population and a substantial share of global GDP, making it a formidable economic coalition.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, responded to the invitation with cautious optimism. He expressed appreciation for the opportunity and stated that the Kingdom would study the details before making an appropriate decision. He emphasized that BRICS presents a valuable channel to strengthen economic cooperation with major developing economies. However, his remarks also indicated that Saudi Arabia’s decision would depend on a comprehensive assessment of both risks and benefits.
Strategic Hesitations
Several factors contribute to Saudi Arabia’s cautious stance regarding BRICS membership:
1. Relations with Western Allies
Saudi Arabia’s historical ties with the United States and European nations play a significant role in its strategic calculations. As a key ally in the Gulf region, the Kingdom has benefited from security partnerships and arms deals with the West. Joining BRICS, which is perceived by some as a counterbalance to Western influence, could strain these relationships. The United States, in particular, has expressed concerns about BRICS’ push to reduce the global dominance of the US dollar in trade and finance. Saudi Arabia must weigh the potential backlash from Washington against the economic opportunities presented by BRICS membership.
2. Economic Diversification Goals
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 aims to diversify its economy beyond oil dependence by investing in technology, tourism, and renewable energy. While BRICS membership could open new markets and investment opportunities, the Kingdom is assessing how this aligns with its existing economic partnerships. China, a leading BRICS member, is already one of Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partners. Expanding ties through BRICS could boost trade, particularly in energy and infrastructure sectors. However, the Kingdom must consider the risk of over-dependence on the Chinese market, especially as it seeks to balance relations with the West.
3. Regional Dynamics and Rivalries
The inclusion of Iran, a regional rival, in BRICS adds complexity to Saudi Arabia’s decision. Although Riyadh and Tehran have recently taken steps toward diplomatic rapprochement, longstanding tensions remain. Joining the same bloc as Iran could pose challenges for Saudi Arabia’s regional policies, particularly in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, where the two nations support opposing factions. Additionally, the participation of other Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt and the UAE could dilute Saudi Arabia’s influence within BRICS, prompting the Kingdom to carefully evaluate its role and leverage in the group.
4. The Dollar Dilemma
One of BRICS’ strategic goals is to reduce reliance on the US dollar for trade settlements and promote alternative currencies, such as the Chinese yuan. For Saudi Arabia, a leading oil exporter that prices its crude in dollars, this presents a dilemma. A shift away from the dollar could impact its oil revenues and complicate relations with the United States. On the other hand, reducing dollar dependence aligns with Saudi Arabia’s long-term goal of financial diversification. The Kingdom’s recent agreements with China to settle oil trades in yuan underscore its willingness to explore alternatives, but joining BRICS could accelerate this shift in ways that might provoke a strong response from Washington.
5. Security Concerns
Saudi Arabia’s security is closely tied to its partnerships with the United States, particularly through arms sales and intelligence cooperation. The perception that BRICS leans towards an anti-Western agenda raises concerns about the potential impact on these security ties. Riyadh’s careful navigation between expanding ties with China and maintaining its US alliance highlights the complexity of its security calculus. The Kingdom’s recent defense agreements with Russia, another BRICS member, further complicate this balancing act.
Global Implications
Saudi Arabia’s eventual decision on BRICS membership holds significant implications:
- Energy Markets: As a leading member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia’s alignment with BRICS could influence global energy policies. A move to price oil in alternative currencies could accelerate de-dollarization efforts and reshape the global energy market.
- Geopolitical Balance: Saudi participation could bolster BRICS’ position as a counterweight to Western alliances, potentially reshaping diplomatic and economic alliances worldwide. It could also signal a broader shift in the Middle East towards multipolarity, with nations diversifying their partnerships beyond the US sphere of influence.
- Economic Realignments: BRICS’ focus on trade in local currencies and the development of alternative financial institutions could offer Saudi Arabia new tools for managing economic volatility. However, this shift could also disrupt existing trade mechanisms and expose the Kingdom to new risks.
Looking Ahead: Strategic Patience or Missed Opportunity?
Saudi Arabia’s hesitation reflects a broader strategy of cautious realignment in its foreign policy. The Kingdom’s recent moves, including restoring ties with Iran and deepening relations with China and Russia, suggest a gradual shift towards a multipolar approach. However, outright BRICS membership would mark a significant step in this direction, potentially accelerating the erosion of US influence in the region.
For now, Saudi Arabia seems to be adopting a “wait and see” approach, engaging with BRICS informally through dialogue and cooperation while delaying a formal commitment. This strategy allows Riyadh to extract economic benefits and test the waters without provoking immediate retaliation from the West. The coming months will likely reveal whether Saudi Arabia’s hedging strategy represents a temporary pause or a deeper reluctance to break from its traditional alliances.
Conclusion
Saudi Arabia’s deliberation over BRICS membership reflects a strategic assessment of its foreign policy, economic goals, and regional dynamics. The Kingdom’s decision will not only affect its own trajectory but also the future landscape of international relations. As the world watches, Riyadh’s next move could redefine its role on the global stage.
