Efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have encountered significant obstacles, primarily due to the ongoing Gaza conflict and broader regional sensitivities. While initial steps toward rapprochement were made, recent developments have underscored the complexities involved in such a historic shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy.
The Gaza Conflict: A Major Roadblock
The escalation of violence in Gaza has been a critical factor hindering the normalization process. In October 2023, the Hamas-led attack on Israel led to widespread casualties and a subsequent Israeli military response that has intensified the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Saudi Arabia, along with other Arab nations, has condemned the violence and called for an immediate ceasefire. Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, emphasized that normalization with Israel cannot proceed without a resolution to the Palestinian issue, stating, “De-escalation of the conflict in Gaza and halting civilian deaths is a key focus of Saudi Arabia”.
Furthermore, Prince Turki Al-Faisal, former head of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence services, reiterated that normalization would only be considered after the establishment of a Palestinian state. He highlighted that prior to the October 7 attack, discussions had been progressing positively, including direct talks between Palestinian representatives and American officials. However, the outbreak of violence disrupted these efforts .
Regional Sensitivities and Domestic Considerations
Beyond the Gaza conflict, regional dynamics and domestic factors play pivotal roles in Saudi Arabia’s cautious approach toward normalization with Israel. Unlike the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which signed the Abraham Accords in 2020, Saudi Arabia’s position is influenced by its leadership role in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Normalization without tangible progress on Palestinian statehood could undermine Saudi Arabia’s credibility and legitimacy among its populace and across the broader Arab world.
Public opinion within Saudi Arabia reflects this sentiment. A poll conducted by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy revealed that a significant majority of Saudis believe Arab nations should sever ties with Israel, with 95% expressing disapproval of Hamas’s actions during the October 7 attack. Additionally, only a small fraction supports Hamas’s call for the destruction of Israel, indicating a preference for a peaceful resolution based on a two-state solution .
The Role of the United States
The United States has been a key mediator in facilitating discussions between Saudi Arabia and Israel. President Donald Trump’s administration has expressed a desire to revive the Abraham Accords and has proposed substantial economic incentives to encourage Saudi-Israeli normalization. During his recent visit to Riyadh, President Trump discussed a proposed $1 trillion in investments aimed at strengthening U.S.-Saudi economic ties. However, these economic incentives are contingent upon progress in resolving the Palestinian issue .
Despite these efforts, the Trump administration faces challenges in aligning its objectives with the realities on the ground. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s resistance to halting military operations in Gaza and reluctance to commit to a Palestinian state further complicate the normalization process. Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a two-state solution as a prerequisite for normalization remains a significant hurdle .
Looking Ahead
The path to normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains fraught with challenges. The ongoing Gaza conflict and the broader geopolitical landscape continue to influence Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy decisions. While economic incentives and diplomatic efforts from the United States may play a role in advancing discussions, the core issue of Palestinian statehood remains central to Saudi Arabia’s stance.
For normalization to proceed, tangible steps toward a two-state solution must be evident. This includes halting Israeli settlement activities, enhancing the authority of the Palestinian leadership, and committing to negotiations that lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Without such developments, Saudi Arabia’s position is unlikely to shift, and the prospect of normalization with Israel will remain elusive.
Conclusion
The challenges facing Saudi-Israel normalization efforts underscore the complexities of Middle Eastern diplomacy. While economic incentives and strategic alliances are important, they cannot replace the necessity of addressing core issues such as Palestinian statehood. As the situation in Gaza continues to evolve, the international community’s focus must remain on fostering dialogue and seeking solutions that ensure lasting peace and stability in the region.
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