Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – In a significant diplomatic development, senior officials from the United States and Russia convened in Riyadh on February 18, 2025, to discuss potential pathways to end the ongoing war in Ukraine. This meeting, hosted by Saudi Arabia, marks the first direct negotiation between the two powers since the conflict’s escalation nearly three years ago.
The meeting comes at a crucial time as the war in Ukraine continues to drag on with severe consequences for both regional stability and global geopolitics. The discussions in Riyadh could signal a shift in diplomatic efforts, raising hopes for a resolution even as deep-rooted tensions persist.
Background of the Conflict
The war in Ukraine, which erupted in February 2022, has led to widespread devastation, resulting in thousands of civilian casualties and the displacement of millions. The conflict has also fueled global economic uncertainty, triggering energy crises and disruptions in key supply chains. Over the years, international mediation efforts have struggled to achieve lasting peace, with previous negotiations often stalling due to fundamental disagreements between Russia, Ukraine, and their respective allies.
For the United States and its European allies, Ukraine’s sovereignty remains a non-negotiable issue. However, Russia continues to insist on security guarantees and territorial considerations as prerequisites for any settlement. Despite several rounds of failed ceasefire agreements and diplomatic summits, the war has raged on, further straining relations between the West and Russia.
Details of the Riyadh Meeting
The Riyadh discussions were attended by high-level officials from both nations. The U.S. delegation was led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, accompanied by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. On the Russian side, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov represented the Kremlin. Saudi Arabia, acting as the host and mediator, was represented by Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and National Security Advisor Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, the primary topics included:
- Ceasefire Agreements: Exploring mechanisms to halt active hostilities, with a focus on creating demilitarized zones.
- Diplomatic Relations: Restoring and normalizing diplomatic ties between the United States and Russia, which have been severely strained since the invasion.
- Economic Sanctions: Addressing the potential lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia in exchange for compliance with international norms.
- Prisoner Exchanges and Humanitarian Corridors: Negotiating agreements for the release of detained personnel and the facilitation of aid deliveries to affected regions.
While no immediate breakthroughs were announced, both sides acknowledged that the meeting was a constructive step toward further dialogue. A follow-up session is expected to take place in the coming months.
Exclusion of Ukraine from the Talks
One of the most contentious aspects of the Riyadh negotiations was the absence of Ukrainian representatives. The exclusion of Ukraine has sparked criticism, particularly from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has repeatedly stated that any peace agreement should involve direct negotiations with Kyiv. “There must be no decisions over the heads of Ukraine,” Zelenskyy declared in a recent statement, emphasizing that Ukraine’s sovereignty cannot be compromised.
European leaders have echoed this sentiment. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron both insisted that any resolution must be acceptable to Ukraine, reaffirming their commitment to Kyiv’s independence and territorial integrity.
However, diplomatic insiders suggest that the U.S. and Russia chose to engage in preliminary talks without Ukraine to explore potential areas of compromise before involving Kyiv in a broader negotiation framework. Critics argue that excluding Ukraine from the conversation sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the country’s ability to determine its own fate.
Reactions from the International Community
The Riyadh meeting has prompted a wave of reactions from global stakeholders.
United States
The Biden administration has maintained that the U.S. remains committed to Ukraine’s cause. However, tensions have risen between Washington and Kyiv in recent weeks, with U.S. officials urging President Zelenskyy to moderate his public criticisms of the negotiations. Some White House officials believe that Ukraine’s firm stance may hinder the potential for diplomatic progress.
Russia
On the Russian side, there are no indications of immediate concessions. Moscow continues to insist on security guarantees and territorial adjustments as part of any settlement. Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated that Russia would not agree to any terms that compromise its strategic interests, particularly regarding NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe.
European Union
EU leaders have expressed unease over being sidelined in the negotiations. The bloc has played a key role in supporting Ukraine both militarily and economically, and European nations worry that a U.S.-Russia deal made without their input could weaken their collective stance against Russian aggression.
Economic Implications
The outcome of these talks could have far-reaching economic consequences, particularly in global energy markets. The potential for a peace agreement may lead to shifts in oil and gas prices, as well as changes in the economic sanctions currently imposed on Russia.
Oil and Gas Prices
One major factor under discussion is the possibility of lifting some sanctions on Russian energy exports. If sanctions are eased, global oil and gas supplies could increase, potentially stabilizing prices. However, experts suggest that OPEC’s production limits may keep prices steady, even in the event of a Russian market reentry.
European Energy Security
Before the war, Russia was a major supplier of natural gas to Europe. The conflict led to a sharp decline in Russian gas exports, forcing Europe to seek alternative energy sources. If peace negotiations result in renewed energy trade, European nations could see lower energy costs, though it may also impact U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which have surged since the war began.
Future Prospects
While the Riyadh meeting represents a potential turning point, significant obstacles remain on the path to peace. The exclusion of Ukraine from the initial discussions raises concerns about the legitimacy and sustainability of any agreements reached. Ensuring that Ukraine’s interests are adequately represented will be crucial in maintaining international support for a lasting resolution.
Additionally, the upcoming U.S. presidential elections and shifting geopolitical alliances could further complicate negotiations. Washington’s long-term commitment to Ukraine may depend on political dynamics within the U.S., as some factions push for reduced involvement in the conflict.
As the situation develops, the world watches closely. The success or failure of these negotiations could determine the future of the Ukraine conflict, shaping global security and economic stability for years to come. While hopes for peace remain, the road ahead is uncertain, and much will depend on the willingness of all parties to compromise and engage in meaningful dialogue.
