US and Saudi Arabia Set to Finalize Historic $100 Billion Arms Deal
In a move poised to dramatically reshape the defense dynamics of the Middle East, the United States and Saudi Arabia are nearing the final stages of a groundbreaking arms deal valued at more than $100 billion. Expected to be formally announced during former President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May 2025, this deal stands as the largest in the history of US-Saudi relations and underscores the deepening defense ties between the two nations.
A Strategic Partnership Strengthened
The impending agreement represents a significant escalation of the defense cooperation that has characterized US-Saudi relations for decades. Sources familiar with the ongoing negotiations have revealed that the deal will include a broad range of sophisticated military technologies aimed at enhancing Saudi Arabia’s defense capabilities. Among the most noteworthy components of the arms package are:
- MQ-9 Reaper Drones: These drones are known for their advanced surveillance and strike capabilities, providing Riyadh with enhanced intelligence, reconnaissance, and precision strike options.
- Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs): These systems will significantly improve the accuracy of Saudi airstrikes, minimizing civilian casualties while maximizing military effectiveness.
- Advanced Air and Missile Defense Systems: The inclusion of state-of-the-art air defense technology is particularly critical given the ongoing tensions in the region and Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability to missile and drone attacks, particularly from Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
This deal is seen as a continuation and expansion of the US-Saudi defense cooperation framework that was initially set in motion with a 2017 agreement, which proposed an arms deal worth $110 billion and the possibility of reaching up to $350 billion over the next decade. However, much of the potential was not realized at the time due to various geopolitical factors and shifting priorities. This new agreement aims to fulfill much of that unrealized potential, further cementing Saudi Arabia’s role as a cornerstone ally in Washington’s broader Middle Eastern strategy.
The F-35 Dilemma
While the arms deal is already one of the largest in recent memory, a particularly contentious issue in the ongoing negotiations is Saudi Arabia’s desire to acquire the Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighter jet. Riyadh has expressed strong interest in adding the highly advanced fighter to its air force, which would significantly enhance its air superiority and military deterrence in the region.
However, the F-35 deal is proving to be a complex hurdle for both parties. The primary roadblock stems from the US’s commitment to maintaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) in the region. The QME policy mandates that no US weapons sales to Middle Eastern countries should undermine Israel’s technological advantage in military capabilities, which includes the exclusive possession of the F-35 in the region. As a result, any potential F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia is likely to face significant opposition from Israeli officials, as well as from US lawmakers who have traditionally been protective of Israel’s security interests.
Further complicating the situation is the heightened Congressional scrutiny surrounding US arms sales to foreign countries, particularly in the Middle East. In the past, major defense deals involving the region have been subject to intense political debate, with concerns over the balance of power and the potential for escalating conflicts. While past agreements have been approved despite such scrutiny, the inclusion of the F-35 in the current deal may require careful negotiations and concessions to address the concerns of both Israel and US legislators.
Given these geopolitical and domestic challenges, sources suggest that it is unlikely that the F-35 deal will be finalized during Trump’s upcoming visit. However, experts anticipate that Riyadh and Washington will continue to discuss the possibility of including the F-35 in future arms packages, with a focus on overcoming the QME and Congressional hurdles.
Economic and Strategic Implications
The arms deal is poised to have far-reaching economic and strategic consequences, both for the United States and Saudi Arabia, as well as for the broader Middle East region.
- Economic Impact: For US defense contractors, this deal presents a major economic windfall. Companies such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and General Atomics are set to benefit significantly from the large-scale purchase of advanced military technologies. The deal will not only boost the profitability of these companies but will also create thousands of jobs in the defense sector, particularly in states with major defense manufacturing bases.
- Strengthening Regional Stability: The expanded military capabilities that Saudi Arabia will acquire through this deal are expected to significantly enhance the kingdom’s ability to defend itself against regional threats. Saudi Arabia has long been a target of missile and drone strikes from adversaries such as Iran and its proxy groups in Yemen, and these new defense systems will provide greater protection against such attacks. In the long term, the deal is expected to bolster Saudi Arabia’s deterrence capabilities, contributing to greater stability in the Gulf region.
- Geopolitical Ramifications: On a broader scale, the arms deal is also a clear signal of the US’s ongoing commitment to its Gulf allies, particularly in the face of rising influence from China and Russia in the Middle East. Both Beijing and Moscow have sought to expand their influence in the region by offering military assistance and arms sales to countries such as Iran and Syria, making the US-Saudi arms deal a counterbalance to this growing influence. Moreover, the deal strengthens Saudi Arabia’s position as a key partner in Washington’s efforts to counter Iranian aggression and prevent the spread of nuclear weapons in the region.
Conclusion
As the US and Saudi Arabia move toward finalizing this historic arms agreement, the stakes are high. Not only will the deal deepen the defense ties between the two nations, but it will also play a pivotal role in shaping the future of Middle Eastern security. The agreement comes at a time of increasing instability in the region, particularly with regard to Iran’s growing influence, ongoing conflicts in Yemen, and the broader power struggle between the US and its adversaries.
With Trump’s visit to Riyadh just around the corner, the world will be watching closely to see how the final details of the deal unfold. The deal’s success or failure will likely have a lasting impact on US-Saudi relations and could set the stage for further arms deals in the future. As Riyadh continues to assert itself as a regional powerhouse, the US’s support for Saudi defense capabilities remains crucial to maintaining balance in the volatile Middle East.
While the full scope of the deal will only become clear in the coming months, one thing is certain: the US-Saudi arms deal is poised to reshape the strategic landscape of the Middle East for years to come.
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